Monday, November 13, 2017

Gofore about to IPO on First North

Gofore’s IPO closed just minutes ago and I got on board just in time!


Gofore about to IPO on First North


Gofore

Gofore is a rather small IT consultancy of approximately 400 employees from Tampere. Gofore seems to be almost a carbon-copy of another Tampere based IT consultancy, where I actually own a couple of stocks, Vincit.

Just like Vincit, also Gofore has been a success in the “Great place to work” competition. This becomes less of a merit once one realizes that taking part costs money and only a limited number of companies partake. That still doesn’t take anything away from Gofore, or Vincit.

IPO details

New shares 1.6 million
Sold shares 1.8 million
Of which offered to general public 750 000 shares
Minimum 150 shares => 5000 people at minimum would max out the IPO
Sold shares account for about 26% of all shares in the company
Lock-up period 6 months for Gofore itself and 12 months for sellers

Valuation

Market cap after IPO will be 82 million euro
P/E, trailing twelve months, is 18.5
EV/EBITA is 12-14 for the current year (Vincit is at 17, Siili at 12)
Growth
Revenue growth from 2015 to 2016 was about 50%, to 18.6 million euro
Revenue for 2017 is expected to hit 32.5 to 34.5 million euro, which would be +80%
Q1-Q3 2017 revenue was 22.7 million euro, which is up 76% compared to Q1-Q3 2016
Q1-Q3 2017 EBITA was 3.8 million euro, compared to 1.9 million euro Q1-Q3 2016
Q1-Q3 2017 EPS was 0.30 euro, compared to 0.14 euro Q1-Q3 2016
EBITA for 2017 is expected to hit 5.2 to 6.2 million euro, which would be +130%
Sales CAGR from 2012 to 2016 was 49.7%

Profitability

EBIT% 2017 estimate 17%
EBIT% from 2012 to 2016 has been 13.5%
ROI% has been around 50-60%

Major risks (from Evli research)

1) failing to maintain key personnel and attract new skilled professionals, 2) increased competition dampening price level, 3) unsuccessful internationalization to Germany and the UK, 4) Higher personnel costs due to wage inflation and 5) Customer risk; five largest customers account 42% of the sales.

Conclusions

I’m taking part in the IPO because of the current “climate” where the IPO scene is somewhat heated up and in my opinion there are quick profits to be made. I believe the IPO to be overbooked and that price on the open will be a bit over the IPO price. 

As for Gofore, the price seems quite fair, not too bad but not cheap either. The business is not capital intensive and is quite profitable. And having public sector as its biggest customers may be considered as a feat of entrepreneurship. Gofore tells that they will seek to grow faster than the overall market’s, which itself is growing quite fast at 15% to 25%.

Gofore’s current owners are selling their stock but they are not making an exit and will still retain a dominating 56% of all stock in the company. Mutual pension companies Varma and Ilmarinen are the anchor investors, with at least 1.35 million shares combined. 

The company lacks a moat or some other characteristic that would make it special. I mean, sure they have had success as a good employer and all but that doesn’t tend to last. As the company grows, recruiting top talent and providing a close environment becomes increasingly difficult. Therefore, I don’t intend to hold the stock for a long time.

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Cheating my way to 110k

A new milestone! It was back in May that my portfolio clocked it’s first 6 figure rating and on Wednesday 18th was the first time it reached 110k, or 111 094 euros to be exact. I also record my net worth although I don't find it such a valuable metric as it's not "edible", but it's hovering somewhere around 133 000 euros at the moment.

Although I have a bit of a confession to make. I cheated a bit! But only myself, I moved a couple of grands from my usage money to my portfolio and may have to move it back at some point. So, the figure is perhaps a little bit inflated.

Between first 100k and first 110k was exactly 167 days, so my portfolio gained a really nice 60 euros per day. Savings since 100k were 6 381 euros and gains were 3 742 euros within that period. With time the proportion of portfolio gains should dominate savings but such a trend is not emerging yet.

On Wednesday my portfolio looked like this:


 
6.1.2017 10.5.2017 18.10.2017 change
Savings account 7575 7596 2000 -5596
Passive funds, broad 30172 33599 35844 +2245
Passive funds, niches 9734 11330 12902 +1572
Actively managed funds 6603 7499 8279 +780
Listed stocks 24930 32872 43036 +10164
Unlisted stocks 5250 5250 4500 -750
Fixed income 100 100 100 0
Cash 6012 4093 4434 +341
Total 90376 102337 111094 +8757


Year-to-date my portfolio is up about 7% so the year has been okay but not great. The lowering dollar valuation has hurt my portfolio to some extent as I hold plenty of US equities. I also have to note that I am a bit worried with the bull market just continuing and continuing on, Dow and S&P making not all-time-highs and VIX making all-time-lows. Just doesn’t add up!

I think my individual stock picks are getting a bit out of hand. I’ll need to try and limit my purchases to indexes for now. I also notice I’m checking my accounts rather often which isn’t a good sign. I’m thinking about adding trailing stops to my positions but at least Nordnet doesn’t support that.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

What's there not to like about the Titanium IPO

A week ago I wrote about Rovio's IPO, which I think is overpriced, but I still pulled the trigger on that one. That IPO has just closed but the results aren't out yet. I'm hoping for an opening bounce and plan on exiting Rovio soon.

Titanium

The next IPO on the schedule is Titanium, a rather small investment fund company, specializing in healthcare real estate. They describe themselves as follows:
Titanium on suomalainen, pankkiryhmistä riippumaton hoivakiinteistöihin ja asuntoihin sijoittaviin erikoissijoitusrahastoihin sekä omaisuudenhoitopalveluihin keskittynyt kasvuyhtiö. Titanium on perustettu vuonna 2009 ja sen hallinnoima varallisuus 30.6.2017 oli noin 350 miljoonaa euroa.

I've looked at the investment case and am struggling to find anything bad to say about it really. This post includes my notes. Again, not thoroughly formatted but the content is key right?

Titanium's business areas(numbers for end H1 2017)
  • Health care real estate fund: started 2013, AUM 217M, number of units 76, occupancy 100%, average lease 11 years == accounts for almost 90% of revenue
  • Apartment real estate fund, started 2016, AUM 58M, number of apartments 331, occupancy 93%
  • Stock market fund, started 2016, AUM 5M
  • Asset management service, AUM 62M

Biggest product = Healthcare real estate fund
  • real estate is new (mostly less than 10 years old)
  • in good, diversified locations
  • diversified rentees (23) with top3 rentees accounting for 36%


IPO details

Shares offered:
  • Share issuance = 827.5k shares
  • Share sale by current owners = 2440k shares
  • Additional share sale if oversubscription = 821.4k shares
  • Number of stocks offered to general public = 1.625 million (minimum is 150 stocks so 11k investors with minimum would do it)
  • Number of stocks offered to institutions = 1.48 million 
  • One share is 6.15 euro

Dates:
  • Starts 25th of September,
  • Earliest end date 29th of September,
  • Results out 9th of October
  • Trading starts 16th of October


The numbers: Fast growth with awesome profitability

2011 through 2016: revenue growth 57% (CAGR) and at the same time EBITDA margin average 44%

Titanium's growth in 5 last years is +57% CAGR with an average EBITDA 44%.

Most important numbers:

H1 2017
H1 2016
2016
2015
Revenue
4.6M
2.4M
6.7M
4.3M
EBITDA
2.9M / 63%
1.2 / 49%
3.5 / 52%
2.4M / 55%
Operating profit (EBIT)
2.3M / 49%
0.6M / 23%
2.2M / 33%

Profit for year
1.7M
0.3M
1.6M
0.7M
Equity ratio
91%
93%
88%
93%
Net gearing (negative value means more money than debt
-51%
-33%
-43%
-38%
ROE
18.5%
4.4%
18.5%
8.4%
EPS
0.20 euro
0.04 euro
0.18 euro
0.08 euro
Total assets
10.7M
8.2M
10.2M
8.7M
CF
2.4M
0.9M
2.4M
1.9M


Inderes’ key numbers for 2017:
  • P/E 9.9
  • EV/S 4.2
  • EV/EBITDA 7.0
  • dividend yield 7.6%
  • EPS 0.62 euro


Future outlook, dividend and risks: demand is expected to remain high

  • Goal to increase revenue to 16M by 2020 (2017 about 10M) by increasing current products and by launching new products
    • ==> Assuming revenue for 2017 is around 7 million, that would require over 30% of annual growth for 4 years
    • Increase Healthcare fund to 500M within 2 to 3 years, with most of the expansion already agreed upon
  • Maintaining high profitability = EBITDA above 50%.
  • Dividend policy: growing dividend, at least 70% of profit


Major risks:
  • societal and political risks, e.g., social and health services reform (“Sote”)
  • AUM could go down, e.g., if people realize the extortionate fees they’re dishing out
  • regulatory, e.g., increased costs and risks of handling MIFID2, etc.
  • market turning and performance fees going down (lately a major component of revenue)


Additional insights and conclusion


Insights:
  • A lot of emphasis is given to management team's experience, agility and "leanness".
  • All major owners are selling shares but still maintaining most, most seem to be selling 25-33% of their stocks. Long 2 year lock-up and key personnel have a 5 year working commitment.
  • Customer loyalty: Of customer who have used services and products, 94% are still customers.


Titanium seems to have come up with a very well scaling business model that is very cost efficient. I'm finding it difficult to come up with anything bad about the company, it basically seems to be a "license to print money". I'd like one of those please!

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Rovio IPO valuation is too damn high!

Rovio is currently IPOing to the Helsinki stock exchange. Taking part in IPOs has been quite lucrative in the near past, so I’m definitely interested! I read Rovio’s IPO prospectus and will publish my notes here. The format ain’t too polished but here goes.

Stock and IPO basics

Stock:
Number of stocks total currently = 75.3 million
Number of new stocks being issued = 2.7 million
Number of stocks after IPO = 78.0 million
Stock sellers get 373 million euro (=exit). Rovio gets 30 million euro only from stock issuance.

IPO:
Number of stocks offered to general public = 2 million (minimum is 100 stocks so 20k investors with minimum would do it)
Number of stocks offered to institutions = 35.2 million (~95% of stocks are going to institutions)
..of which institutions’ already committed number of stocks = 20.2 million (15 million stocks up for grabs)

Dates:
IPO ends Tuesday 25th of September at 16:00
Results of IPO out 28th of September
Trading commences on 29th of September at pre-list and 3rd of October on main list


Key numbers from end of H1 2017 (trailing 12 months):

Income statement:
Revenue 266 million (=S)
Operating income 29.5 million (=EBIT)
Net income 20.3 million (=E)

Cash flow statement:
Cash flow from operations 40.8 million (=CFFO)

Balance sheet:
Cash 44.9 million
Debt 50.0 million
Debt/CFFO = 1.2
Total assets 147 million (=B)
Net gearing -35% (=no net debt)

Profitability and valuation

EPS for H1 2017 (6 months) = 0.18 euro = low
EBIT margin 14%
ROE ttm 31%

low end of scale 10.25 euros per stock -> Market cap = 800 million (=P)
high end of scale 11.50 euros per stock -> Market cap = 897 million (=P)
P/B = 5.4 – 6.1
P/E = 39 – 44
P/S = 3.0 – 3.4
P/CFFO = 20 – 22

Other considerations

Future: Mobile gaming estimated to be growing at 14% through 2020.
No major operative risks being seen: Second movie is produced by Sony, not Rovio.
Number of personnel is reduced to less than half of peak (848 -> 376) (=lean).
Operations seem quite professional but still somewhat of a “one hit wonder”.
Leadership team (execs and board) all have skin in the game in the company via stocks and/or options.
Growth in previous months is very high but the sustainability of such growth seems unlikely.
Rovio leadership’s guidance for H2 2017 is “significant EBITDA increase […] Over 10% is considered ‘significant’”

Conclusions

One thing holding me back is my personal disinterest in engaging in Rovio’s games. In the reports one can see that the monthly average revenue per paying user (=MARPPU, one of Rovio’s KPIs) is over 30 euros is stunningly mind-boggling to me! Also, the Angry bird brand seems a bit past is Best before date, but that’s not the worst part.

The valuation is too damn high! ..But I may still try and juicy a couple of euros from “greater fools” by partaking in the IPO with a very short term outlook. Another strategy I’m pondering is abstaining for now, checking how the stocks opens in the first minutes of trading and try and do some “play moves” then.


Happy trading!



Sunday, June 4, 2017

Six Figures!

Andreas Levers: Hangar 6

Wow, it's been a long time since I last updated the blog. During the Spring I was a bit overwhelmed with my work load at the hamster wheel and also experienced a little bit of a writer's block. Being a procrastinator, starting writing or anything is always a small hurdle for me.


Since my last postback in January my portfolio has made a new record number. Six Figures! Let me say that again: SIX FIGURES! It now takes six beautiful numbers to write the number of euros in my portfolio. Here's the details:



06.01.17 10.05.17 change
Savings account 7575 7596 +21
Passive funds, broad 30172 33599 +3427
Passive funds, niches 9734 11330 +1596
Actively managed funds 6603 7499 +896
Listed stocks 24930 32872 +7942
Unlisted stocks 5250 5250 0
Fixed income 100 100 0
Cash 6012 4093 -1919
Total 90376 102337 +11961

I think some reflexion is suitable here. My savings and investment practice started 2011 when I started a ”real job” with a proper steady salary. I just simply kept my standard of living at the same level without adding more consumption.

Since then, about six and a half years have passed, and my portfolio has grown from essentially zero to six figures. During these years I've saved about a 1000 euros per month, altogether around 75 thousand euros. The remaining 25 grand has been generated my being in the market, mostly as capital gains and some as dividends also (about 20k and 5k, respectively). The stats on the previous years look something like this:

year savings cum. savings gains cum. gains portfolio value






2010 35 995

1 000
2011 9 936 10 931 -1 017 -1 017 9 919
2012 12 234 23 165 2 508 1 491 24 661
2013 2 424 25 589 2 067 3 558 29 152
2014 12 702 38 291 6 012 9 570 47 866
2015 12 167 50 458 3 786 13 356 63 819
2016 16 128 66 586 9 242 22 598 89 189
2017, until May 8 319 74 905 4 842 27 440 102 350


Year 2013 stands out as a year of less savings but that isn't the real picture as that year I bought my apartment and thus couldn't contribute to my portfolio but did pay approximate 10 thousand as the down payment.

Going forward I hope to be writing more often. BR, Jukka.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Last stop before the big one

Little league 11 by Frank Pierson


90k! What? Already? Yes, just 2 months after making 80k, I've gained my next 10k to 90k. That was super quick – I hadn't expected to make 90k so soon.

A big part this 10k was generated by the market. Since the 80k in November, I've made contributions of around 4 400 euros and the market has returned around 6 800 euros. Thank you Mr Market!

...or should that be Mr Trump? The last 2 months' ”trump rally” has been great for the portfolio. It only took 57 days to go from 80k to 90k!


Here's my portfolio breakdown as of 6th of January 2017 (actually the first 90k was on the 3rd but I didn't record my portfolio breakdown then):


10.11.16 06.01.17 change
Savings account 5043 7575 +2532
Passive funds, broad 26698 30172 +3474
Passive funds, niches 8411 9734 +1323
Actively managed funds 6579 6603 +24
Listed stocks 24954 24930 -24
Unlisted stocks 5250 5250 0
Fixed income 100 100 0
Cash 4258 6012 +1754
Total 81293 90376 +9083


I don't think it is realistic or probably to think that I'd make the next 10k, 6 figures, so soon. Actually my guess is for the markets to remain rather flat for the next year, or possibly correct down. Schiller CAPE is currently over 28.